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The peso is like a runaway freight train going downhill without brakes.

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Post by Clete on Mon Jan 18, 2016 6:46 pm

Why would I worry about the Canadian dollar? That's the Canadians problem.

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Post by David on Mon Jan 18, 2016 7:11 pm

Why would you worry about the $MX?
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Post by Clete on Mon Jan 18, 2016 9:42 pm

Because it has a direct affect on my livelyhood. Is that good enough for you? Not that it is any business of yours.

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Post by David on Tue Jan 19, 2016 8:00 am

That's understandable.
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Post by Ojalero on Wed Jan 20, 2016 11:09 am

An appropriate song to listen to while watching the peso free-fall.

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Post by NEGringos on Wed Jan 20, 2016 11:27 am

Right this minute @ 1129, the peso is $18.63 against the US dollar.

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Post by CanuckBob on Wed Jan 20, 2016 11:42 am

And the DOW is down over 500 points......
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Post by Sideways on Wed Jan 20, 2016 11:52 am

CanuckBob wrote:And the DOW is down over 500 points......

If this is the start of another US recession, it will affect this area if for no other reason than many/most retirees have 401Ks. When they plummet, everyone feels poorer, less likely to take a chance on buying a Mexican casa here. While the peso:dollar exchange is quite sweet to those of us already ensconced with our homes here, taking a chance on a house in a foreign country is not what retirees do when their retirement savings are in free-fall.

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Post by David on Wed Jan 20, 2016 12:02 pm

IMHO it's a market correction and a bit of over reaction.
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Post by CanuckBob on Wed Jan 20, 2016 1:08 pm

Let's hope David. It is reminiscent of 2008 but with completely different reasons......I don't think this one can be bought out of.
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Post by David on Wed Jan 20, 2016 1:24 pm

2008? I don't think so; we don't see banks failing, car companies going bankrupt, or the other things we saw then. Not sure what caused it but the plunge in oil prices is the culprit.
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Post by CanuckBob on Wed Jan 20, 2016 2:42 pm

Like I said "completely different reasons"......yet still a market crash (or maybe a correction). I read that it may "correct" 20% with a very slow recovery.
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Post by David on Wed Jan 20, 2016 4:02 pm

I expect a slow rebuild too.  Although there was no catastrophic event to cause this, maybe only irrational fear, so we could see a bounce.  Quien sabe?
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Post by Viajero-Tiempo on Wed Jan 20, 2016 7:10 pm

Oil is the culprit

Now, if'n i wuz the king of saudi Arabia,
I think i'd show them texuns whut drill baby drill can do when i dont even have to drill....

just sayin - 10.00 per bbl - pesos?

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Post by David on Wed Jan 20, 2016 8:02 pm

Saudi Arabia is on the brink of bankruptcy. They're losing money on every barrel they ship.
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Post by CanuckBob on Wed Jan 20, 2016 8:15 pm

If they go public with their oil company it is said they will raise anywhere from 1 to 10 trillion dollars. Yes, that's trillion. That will tide Saudi over for a few weeks......jaja.
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Post by benjji on Thu Jan 21, 2016 6:21 am

This morning the financial markets are warning that we should get ready for a Mx peso trading at 20 to 1 US dollar and that the Mx economy may be strongly damaged by such an event.

So even if you have dollars your prices will be higher than you may expect them to be.
The government is dumping US dollars into the black hole to slow the drop but I suspect that the release of this morning's statement suggests they know the power to slow this up is nearing an end.

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Post by David on Thu Jan 21, 2016 6:34 am

Please provide a link.
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Post by benjji on Thu Jan 21, 2016 6:39 am

Google Mexican news...in Spanish. Baja Insider.com...in english prediction 20 to 1 by June

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Post by David on Thu Jan 21, 2016 7:19 am

Interesting post by a person with no creds. So, just someone's opinion. I'm not saying we won't see 20 but I believe it will come later than mid-year. The Canadian $ has also lost 40% vs. the $USD but not much being said about that. Also, when it comes to finance, currencies, and the stock market, nothing goes in one direction forever.
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Post by Clete on Thu Jan 21, 2016 7:46 am

benjji wrote:This morning the financial markets are warning that we should get ready for a Mx peso trading at 20 to 1 US dollar and that the Mx economy may be strongly damaged by such an event.

So even if you have dollars your prices will be higher than you may expect them to be.
The government is dumping US dollars into the black hole to slow the drop but I suspect that the release of this morning's statement suggests they know the power to slow this up is nearing an end.

Which is basically what I said in a previous post and was scoffed at by the board's economic expert.

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Post by David on Thu Jan 21, 2016 8:01 am

There is no such "warning" in the financial news today. BTW, Mexico has used barely 18% of its foreign reserves to slow the Peso's decline. The rise of the $US is not the doing of Mexico anymore than it is the work of Canada whose currency has declined exactly as Mexico's has. Doubtful that the Mexican economy will be "strongly damaged" by the rising $US.
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Post by oncesubtle on Thu Jan 21, 2016 8:08 am

If you are referring to David as the board's economic expert Clete I'd agree. Over the years David has been the only person I can remember who makes a logical case and presents his insights and observations with links when and where needed.

But please do continue to post your thoughts. This is a serious subject and deserves all manner of discussion.


Last edited by oncesubtle on Thu Jan 21, 2016 11:53 am; edited 1 time in total
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Post by benjji on Thu Jan 21, 2016 8:20 am

El Ecomomista has quoted the head of the Mexican economical council as well as it's own experts at their fear that the Mexican peso will continue to weaken...they do not suggest that it is anything more than the continued collapse of oil prices. Mexico is now selling oil at approx $20.00 us a barrel and not finding many takers other than the folks whose contracts are still in effect.

I am NOT disagreeing with David but I am noticing the louder cries that "trouble" MAY lie ahead...maybe the sky is not falling but it may be getting overcast.

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Post by Trailrunner on Thu Jan 21, 2016 8:29 am

oncesubtle wrote:If you are referring to David as the board's economic expert Clete I'd agree. Over the years David is been the only person I can remember who makes a logical case and presents his insights and observations with links when and where needed.

But please do continue to post your thoughts. This is a serious subject and deserves all manner of discussion.

I agree, I always appreciate David's thoughts and knowledge. And if someone disagrees with him, he has the class and good grace not to get mad about it but rather looks to understand more about the other point of view.
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Post by Playaboy on Thu Jan 21, 2016 8:52 am

There is now talk in Mexico of "20/20", pesos to the dollar and barrel of oil.

Wall Street Journal

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