Murder Rates: Here and elsewhere

Dave, the problem in many places, including here, is that crime is poorly reported here. We really don't know how many bodies are stashed out there in the boonies of Mexico.

When some Canadians or Americans are collateral damage and are innocent that will be a changing point on how people view the cartel occupation of their chosen residence in Mexico. Bet that will change what people think about their views and comparison with murder statistics in paradise.

All this talk about how bad the US is had made me wonder..what the heck...am I just refusing to see it? No. A woman and her 14 year old daughter were killed (by a family friend) and the two younger daughters were kidnapped one county over from us. They were on every news channel...he was on the FBI's top 10 most wanted. Four states were buzzing looking for this creep. It took two weeks...but they found him...and the girls..unharmed but hungry and dehydrated and he's dead...by his own hand.

All this fuss over two dead and two kidnapped..... do not try and compare...it just doesn't work. I do feel safe here.

What I don't understand is why the need to sugar coat what is happening in the jalisco area. So far it does not compare to Juarez or other areas. Can it become that bad? Look to your neighbor in michocan, it can and might.

Why do some poster's over and over repeat other crime statistics ? Is it to justify and reinforce their decision that because it doe not s not effect them personally? How many soothsayers have real estate investments income ... rentals in the area? Do they keep tolling the virtues and hope others will repeat the same? If life is good then so be it. But there does come a time when you cannot escape reality. I sincerely hope the situation will change. Right now the touting of the horn is just beating a dead horse..

"What I don't understand is why the need to sugar coat what is happening in the jalisco area. So far it does not compare to Juarez or other areas. Can it become that bad? Look to your neighbor in michocan, it can and might."

You bring up an interesting point when you mention Michoacán. For at least three years, Michoacán has been living under a "black cloud" having been designated as one of the "travel watch/warning" areas. Current info from the US State Dept. states:
"You should defer non-essential travel to the state of Michoacán except the cities of Morelia and Lázaro Cardenas where you should exercise caution. Flying into Morelia and Lázaro Cardenas, or driving to Lázaro Cardenas via highway 200 from Zihuatanejo/Ixtapa, are the recommended methods of travel. Attacks on Mexican government officials, law enforcement and military personnel, and other incidents of TCO-related violence, have occurred throughout Michoacán."
Based upon our personal experiences traveling through or around a number of areas of Michoacán, we find that a very large roller has been used to paint this entire Mexican State unfairly. Certainly there are areas or regions within Michoacán that we stay clear of and wouldn't think of traveling to. Our Michoacán travel decisions are based upon current events found in the Mexican media from the area and from our contacts who live and work in the State. To give an example, there were numerous events in and around Patzcuaro in July of 2009 and in view of the fact that we had an August trip planned, we became quite skittish. Based upon research, we chose to make the trip and have gone there every year since. We stay in Patzcuaro but spend all of our days traveling the countryside with zero negative experiences. Should the news and personal reports go the other way, we may not make our next planned trip to Michoacán but have no apprehensions at this point.

I don't feel unsafe at all in Ajijic or anywhere I have travelled around here in the past several weeks. I do feel bad for our Mexican neighbors though and imagine I would be very apprehensive if I was a Mexican parent in this area right now.

I don't feel unsafe either and neither do any of our fellow Homeowner's.

[quote="kipissippi"]All this talk about how bad the US is had made me wonder..what the heck...am I just refusing to see it? No. A woman and her 14 year old daughter were killed (by a family friend) and the two younger daughters were kidnapped one county over from us. They were on every news channel...he was on the FBI's top 10 most wanted. Four states were buzzing looking for this creep. It took two weeks...but they found him...and the girls..unharmed but hungry and dehydrated and he's dead...by his own hand.

All this fuss over two dead and two kidnapped..... do not try and compare...it just doesn't work. I do feel safe here.(Emphasis mine,)[/quote]

That´s good to hear Kippy Darlin´. Since Dawg grew up in Montgomery and Mobile and went to university near Birmingham and, consequently, knows something about how violent U.S. southern cities are from personal experience over some 27 years, I thought it would be fun to cite some statistics on Metropolitan Memphis, TN/Ms/Ark since where you live in Mississippi could be considered exurban Memphis just as Chapala is exurban Guadalajara (as opposed to suburban).

Memphis is the second most violent city in the United States after Detroit, Michigan. Memphis, with a metro area population of approximately 1,300,000 people, had a violent crime rate in 2010 of 1,006 per 100,000 population (vs. Detroit´s 1,111 per 100,000). Much of this stems from the fact that Memphis is the most impoverished metropolitan zone in the U.S. with a chronic poverty rate of 19.1% of residents. If this surprises you I must admit it surprises me as well. I´ve always known that Memphis has a reputation as a crime ridden city but I find it hard to believe that Memphis is a more violent place, statistically speaking than, say, New Orleans or Oakland where Dawg also lived and worked downtown for a few years and, also speaking from experience, if Memphis is more dangerous than Oakland, maybe you´d better do your shopping in Oxford or Yazoo City.

Now, Metro Guadalajara, with over 4,000,000 people, is statistically safer than Memphis but Dawg has absolutely no faith in the authorities in Guadalajara or anywhere in Mexico to be relied upon for accurate crime reporting so no way I would ever compare violent crime rates in any U.S. city with crime rates in any Mexican city including Lakeside where we live or San Cristóbal de Las Casas, Chiapas where we also live. In other words, I agree with you that one cannot compare crime statistics from political jurisdiction to jurisdiction as it all has to do with the veracity of the reporting authority so to make these comparisone is a ludicrous exercise and proves nothing. Dawg just wants to make sure you watch your butt the next time you drive to Memphis.

This reminds me of the famous French crime comedy Les Ripoux from the 1980s starring Philipe Noiret, a fabulously funny man. In that movie, he played a seasoned and completely corrupted senior police inspector in a seedy precinct of Paris who was assigned a new, unseasoned rookie partner who, on his first assignment at patrolling the streets of the district, returned to the station house with a purse snatcher and his victim in hand proudly exclaiming his victory in capturing this fiend. Noiret took him aside and whispered, "Are you out of your mind you fool? Don´t you know the new police commissioner has promised to clean up this precinct and, here, your first day on the job you sully that promise by claiming to have captured a purse snatcher right here in our streets". At which point, Inspector Noiret turns to the woman victim and states, "Madame, I understand that you lost your purse and am pleased to inform you that this gentleman found it and has been so kind as to bring it to the station on your behalf. Ah, if only there were more kind souls such as this gentleman in Paris, the city would be a far better place, don´t you agree?"

I think the better comparison is with other central american countries. For example, Mexico, even with its drug war going on has a lower murder rate than Guatemala and El Salvador.

Mexico averages 15 murders per 100,000, whereas, Guatemala is a 39 and Honduras is a whopping 86! Nicaragua is a 13 and Costa Rica is an 11.

By comparison with other North American countries, Canada is a 1.62 and the US is a 4.8, so using those stats, Mexico has a higher on average murder rate (the state of Jalisco on it's own is a 12, whereas the Yucatan is a 2).

But I agree with dawg that murder is under-reported here.

Here's the link:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_intentional_homicide_rate

I don't feel particularly safe, but it hasn't stopped me--just improved my eyesight.

Truthfully, I don't feel particularly unsafe here but I have had the benefit of living in a high crime area NOB and learned how to greatly reduce my personal vulnerability to crime. I believe some of the extreme behavior we are seeing from these narcos now is an indication that they are having serious problems and are lashing out as a result.

Mass murder is not a successful PR tactic, instead, it is stiffening the backs of the people and government against these criminals. This will pass IMO.

Mainecoons wrote:Truthfully, I don't feel particularly unsafe here but I have had the benefit of living in a high crime area NOB and learned how to greatly reduce my personal vulnerability to crime. I believe some of the extreme behavior we are seeing from these narcos now is an indication that they are having serious problems and are lashing out as a result.

Mass murder is not a successful PR tactic, instead, it is stiffening the backs of the people and government against these criminals. This will pass IMO.

Sure hope you're right.

Mainecoons wrote:Truthfully, I don't feel particularly unsafe here but I have had the benefit of living in a high crime area NOB and learned how to greatly reduce my personal vulnerability to crime. I believe some of the extreme behavior we are seeing from these narcos now is an indication that they are having serious problems and are lashing out as a result.

Mass murder is not a successful PR tactic, instead, it is stiffening the backs of the people and government against these criminals. This will pass IMO.

You still don't get it. The "government" and "the people"? That train left the station quite awhile ago.

casi nada wrote:

Mainecoons wrote:Truthfully, I don't feel particularly unsafe here but I have had the benefit of living in a high crime area NOB and learned how to greatly reduce my personal vulnerability to crime. I believe some of the extreme behavior we are seeing from these narcos now is an indication that they are having serious problems and are lashing out as a result.

Mass murder is not a successful PR tactic, instead, it is stiffening the backs of the people and government against these criminals. This will pass IMO.

You still don't get it. The "government" and "the people"? That train left the station quite awhile ago.

Indeed,the last time the people and the government were on the same train dates back to when Lazaro Cardenas was president.