More on the virus

Supposed stats for Thursday, August 13th, 2020...

Funny, but you hear about an infected person going into a bar and infecting 10-20 people. Chapala and Jocotepec each has at least 30 positives but the following day, without fail, only 2 or 3 get infected.

What part of RECOVERED don't you get? And the positives are from the very beginning of testing not positives found in the previous day.

So if you have 34 confirmados, 99 negativos, and 12 sospechosos, that will give you 145 tests done. 5 have died and 22 have recovered with 5 active.
I would think that 5+22+5=32, then subtract this from 145 tests and that should equal 123 confirmados plus sospechosos but it doesn’t.
This is for Chapala

Wrong.
Forget about the number of tests done for a minute.
1) 34 people have been confirmed positive by testing
2) 5 have died, 22 have recovered and 5 are still actively positive.

So, you're missing TWO cases... which may be waiting for results and have yet to be confirmed as positive or negative.
Suspicous does NOT mean tested.

Even these stats for the U.S., say nothing about how many tests have been performed nor how many are suspicious but haven't been tested or even how many have tested negative.


No stats are perfect anywhere but please try not to read things into them that aren't there.

I totally agree caligirl108! I sometimes wonder if posting the supposed stats does more harm than good. I have been practicing tough Covid measures since March and see no reason to let up on them. I have been out once to an open air restaurant about a month ago. Other than that, I steer clear. I figure going out for essentials and errands once every two weeks to be a fairly safe measure... masked etc.
Read this article about the long haulers...
https://ca.yahoo.com/news/covid-19-long-haulers-debilitating-symptoms-210633981.html
It sounds remarkably like undiagnosed Narcolepsy...
“The fatigue has been really persistent ...

All I want to do is go to sleep from like two o'clock on every day, and some days I have to,” says Hulett. “I've also started having a lot of like cognitive difficulties. Like I can't remember things, I can't focus on things

That this can affect you neurologically is not in doubt. And it makes me wonder if anyone who is experiencing this sort of "immune response gone haywire" has had their CSF checked for Orexin/Hypocretin... it would be low to none if this is what's going on. It's just ringing a lot of alarm bells for me and will affect a lot of people for a very long time... as in, the rest of their life and will involve major life style changes.
The short version of this post:
Assume everyone is infected. Practice safe measures IF you have to go out and go out as infrequently as possible.
The stats mean boodiddleysquat. Stay Safe!!!

So, do you guys want me to post the stats or not?

Is Bisbeegal on TOB using the same source as you? She indicates there are more cases than what you are reporting.

This is the latest from the Chapala Expat Liaison.

"Yes, Chapala has 61 official cases of covid and 5 confirmed deaths. The numbers are rising, sadly . Please be safe! Your friend Hector Espana."

No, Bisbee Gal is using stats from a local newspaper... I believe El Semanario (?) I am using the official government website.

And AGAIN I ask HECTOR... How many of the 61 "official" cases have recovered.
Geez, it's like pullin' friggin' teeth.

Why are you concerned about the recovered ones? It shouldnt be statistically different from the rest of Mexico..I would think just knowing the number of positives would give you an indication of the danger surrounding you in your environment.

Supposed stats from Friday, August 14th, 2020...

Jreboll wrote:Why are you concerned about the recovered ones?  It shouldn't be statistically different from the rest of Mexico..I would think just knowing the number of positives would give you an indication of the danger surrounding you in your environment.

1) Recovered patients may be sources of antibodies to help others.
2) When the number of recovered patients suddenly stalls compared to the number of confirmed positives it could indicate that a) the virus has mutated and current protocols are no longer working or b) people are being lax about personal protection and/or not social distancing.

This link may explain the discrepancy in number totals...
https://theconversation.com/what-does-recovered-from-coronavirus-mean-4-questions-answered-about-how-some-survive-and-what-happens-next-134883

Both medical and testing criteria must be met before a person is officially declared recovered.

Medically, a person must be fever-free without fever-reducing medications for three consecutive days. They must show an improvement in their other symptoms, including reduced coughing and shortness of breath. And it must be at least seven full days since the symptoms began.

In addition to those requirements, the CDC guidelines say that a person must test negative for the coronavirus twice, with the tests taken at least 24 hours apart.

Only then, if both the symptom and testing conditions are met, is a person officially considered recovered by the CDC.

Now... Is Mexico following protocol? Is the official site from which I am pulling data correct? Is the local paper (La Pagina... thanks Alex) correct? I do not know the answer to those three questions. It is, as I said previously, like pullin' friggin' teeth.

Supposed stats for Saturday, August 15th, 2020...

ferret wrote:

Jreboll wrote:Why are you concerned about the recovered ones?  It shouldn't be statistically different from the rest of Mexico..I would think just knowing the number of positives would give you an indication of the danger surrounding you in your environment.

1) Recovered patients may be sources of antibodies to help others.
2) When the number of recovered patients suddenly stalls compared to the number of confirmed positives it could indicate that a) the virus has mutated and current protocols are no longer working or b) people are being lax about personal protection and/or not social distancing.

This link may explain the discrepancy in number totals...
https://theconversation.com/what-does-recovered-from-coronavirus-mean-4-questions-answered-about-how-some-survive-and-what-happens-next-134883

Both medical and testing criteria must be met before a person is officially declared recovered.



Medically, a person must be fever-free without fever-reducing medications for three consecutive days. They must show an improvement in their other symptoms, including reduced coughing and shortness of breath. And it must be at least seven full days since the symptoms began.

In addition to those requirements, the CDC guidelines say that a person must test negative for the coronavirus twice, with the tests taken at least 24 hours apart.

Only then, if both the symptom and testing conditions are met, is a person officially considered recovered by the CDC.

Now... Is Mexico following protocol? Is the official site from which I am pulling data correct? Is the local paper (La Pagina... thanks Alex) correct? I do not know the answer to those three questions. It is, as I said previously, like pullin' friggin' teeth.

In a perfect world what you say makes sense. However, in Mexico where there is a reluctance to test, you will never find the answers that you’re looking for.

I would say that your statement applies to many countries in the world.
It is what it is. SNAFU.

Supposed stats for Sunday, August 16th, 2020...

Already we are starting to see cases starting to decrease here in south Texas. Will we see a second wave? Maybe not.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/17/health/coronavirus-herd-immunity.html?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20200817&instance_id=21332&nl=the-morning&regi_id=13472193&section_index=1&section_name=big_story&segment_id=36280&te=1&user_id=dd50145f989afaa863733b783a83bf9a

Supposed stats for Monday, August 17th, 2020...

Supposed stats for Tuesday, August 18th, 2020...

Excellent news!...

https://ca.yahoo.com/news/t-cells-not-antibodies-may-225818680.html

Supposed stats for Wednesday, August 19th, 2020