my lakeside property value increased 100% on 4 years. should i sell now, or wait

hello there

i do not live near chapala lake, but i do own some land there and i would like to ask some advice from you locals

i have an lakeside lot on the south rivera, its in SAN CRISTOBAL ZAPOTITLAN, no construction, just the lot, but its very well positioned, electricity, drainage, its nice

being an heritage, it was stucked on a legal limbo for years, now its close to be ready to be sold and i already have an offer for it, i never tought a much about it, cause i remember that small town as being very unremarcable, nothing to do with developed communities like ajijic on the other side of the lake, so my expectations werent very high

still i rejected the first offer, and shortly after that, the potential buyer came back improving the price a 20%, so then we began to talk seriously

but when i visited the town recently, i found out that its beggining to develop, the highway got expanded, there are new hotels being constructed, boutiques, residential developments, restaurants, a yatch club, and so on

so then i checked the cadastral survey of the town and i found out that the new proposed price im being offered its still considerably below the current value for the zone, not only that, but has been growing at a fast and steady rate, getting to the point of increasing 100% in just 4 years!

ive seen that lately theres has been an increase of interest down there, expats looking to settle down on a more tranquil and rural side of the lake, instead of the now convoluted and exclusive ajijic and such

(lately ive seen some documentaries by roy nolan about the life in the south ribera)

so what do you people think? should i keep it until the prices start to slow down? how do you see the movement on the south side? im thinking on cancelling the deal and instead save the propertie as a sure investment

anyway, if you have some word of advice, i would seriously apreciate it, thanks in advance!

with growth like this, what to do maybe obvious to some people and i may look naive, but still, i would love to hear the opinionsof locals who know what to expect on the zone

Yes, real estate has risen significantly on both sides of the lake in the past 18 months or so. Knowing when to sell can be tricky. I always like to sell on the way up not the way down. Who knows when it will peak out? NAFTA, a new President in Mexico and the trump factor will all play a part in determining Mexico's economy in the next few years. I think it will climb for at least another 12 months but after that who knows. Personally if I doubled my money and wasn't planning on ever using the property I would sell now and seek a more secure investment in the US or Canada.

Yes take your money and move on, it is a gamble either way anyways.

Cash is king.

Stuff is worth what you can sell it for today. If you can get that kind of money out of it ....sell !! In this game a lot of talk but when it comes to cash in hand it may be a different story.

The ethical thing to do would be to tell the person you agreed to sell the land to that you have learned it is worth more than you had realized and let him make a better offer first.

Trying to hold the land until the prices have peaked and started to drop is risky as it probably means the buyers are fewer and further between. Good way to loose a lot of money.

You may want to talk to someone (like Spencer McMullen) about calculating the (equivalent of ) capital gains and how that affects your bottom line satisfaction. It is my understanding that vacant land always has (the equivalent of) capital gains charged to you and it doesn't matter if you're a National or a Foreigner.
Just a heads up.

Great advice from Ferret!

“... I would love to hear the opinions (of) locals who know what to expect on the zone.”

No one knows what to expect. Your guess is as good as anyone else’s. There is a reason they call it land “speculation.”

Sell!