Must see video - honest

espíritu del lago wrote:Well we got free birth control for anyone who wants it! America did that, there's a start. ..        

Not sure it's free for all......but the U.S. has one of the lowest population explosion problems. How about some of the Middle Eastern countries where the average is closer to 8 kids per woman? (I get tired just thinking about that one.)
  

Aye.

Agree, Gringal! Food to feed the masses is going to be front and center before long however I think water is going to beat it to the top of the list and I think we're going to see that one in our lifetime.

Trailrunner wrote:Aye.

Agree, Gringal!  Food to feed the masses is going to be front and center before long however I think water is going to beat it to the top of the list and I think we're going to see that one in our lifetime.  

I think you may well be right on that one. When I lived in the States, small municipal water companies were being bought by German companies. Puzzled, at the time. No longer puzzled.  

Trailrunner wrote:Aye.

Agree, Gringal!  Food to feed the masses is going to be front and center before long however I think water is going to beat it to the top of the list and I think we're going to see that one in our lifetime.  

Water is going to be the problem. The huge aquifers of the midwest are dropping rapidly and all the craziness about ethanol will go away as the corn crops drop and people want to eat.

The population problem is not birthrate, it is extended lifespans. The CIA puts out all kinds of reports and roughly half of the countries of the world have birth rates that are below 2.1, the replacement rate.

If you look at the total world birthrates, it is just about at replacement.

If you go look at lifespan tables, lifespans have been increasing about 1 month each year since 1900. This can't increase too much longer.

The main driver is that we have cured childhood illnesses. Plus we have controlled the big killers, cancer, heart disease, diabetes, Cholera, Smallpox etc.

When Social Security was started, 65 was the average lifespan of women and men were less. It was a "widows and orphans" fund. Now, men are in the mid 70s and women in the late 70s and that is just the average. Not unusual to see people in their late 80s and early 90s.

"
The population problem is not birthrate, it is extended lifespans. The CIA puts out all kinds of reports and roughly half of the countries of the world have birth rates that are below 2.1, the replacement rate." (jrm)

...but the other half of the countries of the world have far more than the replacement rate.

However, your point about the extended lifespan is absolutely correct.
The good news and the bad news is the same news, depending on your personal perspective about the future of mankind.

The Social Security Admin never anticipated what has happened since they passed the Act in 1936.

...but the other half of the countries of the world have far more than the replacement rate.

Not really. Most of the high birthrate countries have high infant deaths and short lifespans.

A lot of the developed countries are way under 2, Japan is approaching 1. Japan will cease to exist in another 3-4 generations.

One interesting thing is that the higher the tax burden, the lower the birth rates. We don't have to worry about global warming, we will tax ourselves out of existence.

The birthrate trends in the developed countries and the emerging countries are all down.

My grandparents had an average of 5 kids per family. Their kids (my parents) only averaged 2 kids and their kids (my generation) had an average of 1.5 kids. I don't think the next generation will average 1.2.

"Not really. Most of the high birthrate countries have high infant deaths and short lifespans." rjm

Sad statement.  However, if modern medicine and decent working conditions become available to those countries, that will change.

As far as Japan is concerned, I doubt they will cease to exist.  They will become less crowded and more prosperous, more likely.

Now, that tax theory is one that could use closer examination.   The poor, traditionally, have more children than the rich, though the rich pay more taxes.  I don't think we can play with statistics very productively (pardon the pun) on that one.

I think that, in the end, water will be the biggest problem facing mankind.
"Desertification" is already happening in some areas of the world.  Why?  That's the subject of this debate, eh? 

gringal wrote:
As far as Japan is concerned, I doubt they will cease to exist.

That was a pretty bold prediction.  

viajero wrote:

gringal wrote:
As far as Japan is concerned, I doubt they will cease to exist.

That was a pretty bold prediction.  

Since none of us will be around to verify it..........I'll stick with it.  

gringal wrote:

viajero wrote:

gringal wrote:
As far as Japan is concerned, I doubt they will cease to exist.

That was a pretty bold prediction.  

Since none of us will be around to verify it..........I'll stick with it.  

Sorry,I was referring to jrm's prediction.

viajero wrote:

gringal wrote:

viajero wrote:

gringal wrote:
As far as Japan is concerned, I doubt they will cease to exist.

That was a pretty bold prediction.  

Since none of us will be around to verify it..........I'll stick with it.  

Sorry,I was referring to jrm's prediction.

I was sort of wondering about that, Viajero. Thanks for clarifying.

Every year more land is put into crop production, as well as existing land for longer periods of production, due to irrigation...hence the increased competition for fresh water. Note the Bajio in central Mexico that utilizes much of the water from the Rio Lerma that was not being used 50 years ago before all the dams were placed on the river and it's tributaries.
Water means food in many places in the world and should be prioritized before green lawns and golf courses but not before potable drinking water for burgeoning? population centers.
The increased population of Guadalajara is not helping the fresh water problem in this part of the world as the farmers in El Bajio, the residents and visitors of Lake Chapala, and the the Tapatios all compete for a shrinking resource as compared to the users.
Capturing more rain water with new dams will give the area some wiggle room but that option will soon be exhausted and then it's more rationing and hardship (as compared to the present situation).
Even in developed countries like the US, this is a problem as being played out in California and the Southwest.
So, they try to pull in more crop producing areas in the tropical rain forest part of the world and that's not good for the evironment or the planet ecology.
Aside from land production of food, there is also a problem with the oceanic supply of food that is fast reaching it's capacity to supply as well as regenerate at the same time.
Necessity will probably drive new technology to solutions that we can't see yet but at the moment it appears we are living on a flat earth sailing towards the edge.
We all know how that problem ended... 

...there be Dragons there.  

viajero wrote:

gringal wrote:
As far as Japan is concerned, I doubt they will cease to exist.

That was a pretty bold prediction.  

In the 1930's when Japan invaded China, one of Chiang Kai-shek's long term "chinese" solutions to the problem was for the Chinese to marry, co-habit, sleep with, etc., etc. with the Japanese and swallow them like a python swallows a dog.  Much like what the Celts did to the Normans after their invasion of Ireland in 1170.
There is an old saying in Ireland..."that the Normans invaded Ireland in 1170, and were never heard of again".    
Now in that case, overpopulation was essential.

quote gringal: dragons.
not dragoons?

Just to stay on topic....who is your favorite dragon?
My grand daughter, who is my dragon advising czar, says "ours" is Smaug.  He's a more modern dragon...up with the times, you know.

Ya never know: Could be both!!