Do You Believe This Positive Spin From A Lake Chapla Realtor?

Guiness wrote:... I for one believe that the next 5 years will see a positive trend here along with higher prices! We think so............just bought a second property that we'll use as rental until the market peaks again!

Great idea, Guiness, remember, buy low, sell high! <g>

Merry

Going back to the numbers Bob, one of the things that I just thought of was how many of those 10,000 retirees per day for the next upteen years have passports?
According to CNN Travel, the number of US citizens with passports has risen to 30% recently due to travel requirement for Western Hemisphere.
If we take that and apply it to the populations of retirees, we'd eliminate 70% right off the bat.
My thoughts would be that if a person is hitting retirement age and doesn't have a passport, he probably won't be getting one any time soon.
Maybe the bubble won't be as big as we were talking that one day.

juanrey wrote:

RoofBob wrote:Interesting point Juan. So where are these people? Do they know something we don't because if there is somewhere (all things considered) nicer to live in Mexico we would like to know about it. Anyone?

Well, the numbers DID get me to thinking about that same thing. And then I realized that expat does not simply define retiree living abroad. There are a lot of expats that are in a different country for work purposes. So, that makes me think there would be a lot of them in Mexico City, Monterey, up by the maquiladora / border cities, etc.. Probably a bunch of on the Yucatan too. But that's as far as I got.

There are a lot of US and other foreign students in Mexico at any given time.

brigitte wrote:May be the majority of the Americans are binationals and a lot of them live in the border states. Otherwise there is no way you have 990 000 Americans living in Mexico.

True, except these dual citizen Mexican-Americans are living all over the country and do not form distinct communities. It would not surprise me to learn they outnumber Anglo U. S. citizen expatriates even in Chapala.

Well in my family we are 4 dual citizens. But Mexico doesn't consider us Americans. And I doubt the US even knows we live here. Especially my children. I'd really like to see how they come up with such a large number. That equals almost 1% of the population here and I surely don't see that many Americans running around Guadalajara and most that I do see are probably tourists.

If there are 10,000 in the largest American enclave, theoretically/mathmetically it would take 99 more Lake area communities to get to the million mark. I call BS on that stat.

seisdedos wrote:Well in my family we are 4 dual citizens. But Mexico doesn't consider us Americans. And I doubt the US even knows we live here. Especially my children. I'd really like to see how they come up with such a large number. That equals almost 1% of the population here and I surely don't see that many Americans running around Guadalajara and most that I do see are probably tourists.

If there are 10,000 in the largest American enclave, theoretically/mathmetically it would take 99 more Lake area communities to get to the million mark. I call BS on that stat.

Hey Seis, I don't have the time right now, but I remember several links that stated the Guadalajara area (including Chapala) expat population was somewhere between 25,0000 and 50,000. And I don't think it was forum related sites. So, 1 million considering working expats, students and retirees, might not be soooo much of a push. Anyway, Mexico tops the list on expats by a ton over other countries, and if retirees are going to want to go somewhere close, Mexico would be the spot.

seisdedos wrote:Well in my family we are 4 dual citizens. But Mexico doesn't consider us Americans. And I doubt the US even knows we live here. Especially my children. I'd really like to see how they come up with such a large number. That equals almost 1% of the population here and I surely don't see that many Americans running around Guadalajara and most that I do see are probably tourists.

If there are 10,000 in the largest American enclave, theoretically/mathmetically it would take 99 more Lake area communities to get to the million mark. I call BS on that stat.

The one million figure is easier to believe if you include Mexican-Americans in the count. You might not notice them running around Guadalajara...but they're here alright.

What caught my eye was the relatively low number of sales to Canadians. It seems that their much stronger RE market isn't translating into sales here.

juanrey wrote:

otrocanuck wrote:I could not agree with you more on this Bob. The bad press Mexico receives (whether designed to do this or not) is the biggest threat to this happening, we all need to let those that will listen know that things are good here in lakeside and the press is just sensationalizing the incidents they can.

Agree 100% on the numbers, Bob & I have chatted and we're all in agreement that even the smallest of fractions of a percentage will make a huge difference. But here are some numbers:
315,000,000 US Population
5,200,000 US Expats scattered around the world
1,000,000 US Expats in Mexico
10,000 US Expats Lakeside (ballpark'd to the high side) That is .0032% of US Population
Apply that same percentage against 3,650,000 people hitting retirement age and you come up with 120 people.
Simply extrapolating to show some perspective on the numbers.
Numbers are a funny thing and no one knows anything, it is pure conjecture, but I think Bob & Otra are correct that over time there will be a whole lot of boomers looking South. But, it will only happen if the violence in Mexico subsides. Old people (retirees) have a tendency to be more security conscious and will be heavily influenced by their families, therefore my guess is that if the violence level decreases you will see more activity over the next decade. But it won't be immediate, it will take time.
And I totally agree with you that this spells great economic news for Mexico, and I have to believe the new President understands the economic potential.

All valid and agreeable points Juan but to add another layer, how about this thought: We're all here for pretty much the same reasons. If 10,000 of our peers who retire everyday do the research we did I would think they would do what we did. Maybe not a lot but it won't take many to fill this place up. On another note, lord help us all if Mexico/Chapala should ever get warm fuzzy press up north aimed at the retirement population. Personally I like things the way they are now but feel like I'm standing too close to an over inflated balloon.

Boy Howdy, RB! Did you hit the nail on the head!!! Thank you.

Waaay back in early 2003 or 2004, the AARP ran an article on the wonderful things a Mexico retirement offered, and it produced a wave of folks heading south shortly thereafter, including us. We keep discovering others willing to admit that this was started them thinking about it. The writers presented an overly rosy picture, but nevertheless........life has been good since we made the move. Warts, topes and all.

I for one would believe Dixie's comments. I know she was really busy last week and sold a very respectable number of properties. In addition we were informed in Canada by a politician there that he had been advised to buy properties in Mexico. Note the plural version.

I think that once the prices in the Lake Chapala area adjust down to reflect reality then sales will pick up again, The prices in the area had been way over inflated between 2005 and early 2008 due to heavy demand. As we know the demand is not currently there and they have been slowly returning to earth over the past 4 years. The only places selling at the moment are those that are priced accordingly. Those that have not adjusted will be on the market for many years to come. It could be some time before prices hit 2007/8 levels again.

CanuckBob wrote:I think that once the prices in the Lake Chapala area adjust down to reflect reality then sales will pick up again, The prices in the area had been way over inflated between 2005 and early 2008 due to heavy demand. As we know the demand is not currently there and they have been slowly returning to earth over the past 4 years. The only places selling at the moment are those that are priced accordingly. Those that have not adjusted will be on the market for many years to come. It could be some time before prices hit 2007/8 levels again.

RE has been very slow, but is picking up. I'll wait for others to give their "opinions" before I post facts here. To give an idea houses under 300 K are selling, with fewer over the 400 K - 500 K selling. My cousin at Los Arroyos Sur just sold her house last week after having it on the market for only 3 months. The list prices of houses have not dropped significantly, people are taking less at time of sale.

John, look at Los Arroyos Sur # 7. It recently sold for $389,000 . That house is almost 10% larger than yours. Yet you have your house listed for not 10% less but almost 10% more. I am basing this on what I believe to be your house, you know, #12.

At 10% less than the $389K for the larger house, your house would more than likely sell if you were to list it at say $375,000 and accept an offer of no less than about $350,000. That's still more than twice what you paid for it about 11 years ago. Good luck

Lets hope I got the house #s correct

johninajijic wrote:

CanuckBob wrote:I think that once the prices in the Lake Chapala area adjust down to reflect reality then sales will pick up again, The prices in the area had been way over inflated between 2005 and early 2008 due to heavy demand. As we know the demand is not currently there and they have been slowly returning to earth over the past 4 years. The only places selling at the moment are those that are priced accordingly. Those that have not adjusted will be on the market for many years to come. It could be some time before prices hit 2007/8 levels again.

RE has been very slow, but is picking up. I'll wait for others to give their "opinions" before I post facts here. To give an idea houses under 300 K are selling, with fewer over the 400 K - 500 K selling. My cousin at Los Arroyos Sur just sold her house last week after having it on the market for only 3 months. The list prices of houses have not dropped significantly, people are taking less at time of sale.

Like I said, the ones that are priced correctly at the beginning and willing to drop even more when an offer arrives will sell. As I understood it your cousin dropped from $389,000 to $359.000. Correct? Was that the final selling price or did she reduce even further to close the deal?

MexicoPete wrote:John, look at Los Arroyos Sur # 7. It recently sold for $389,000 . That house is almost 10% larger than yours. Yet you have your house listed for not 10% less but almost 10% more. I am basing this on what I believe to be your house, you know, #12.

At 10% less than the $389K for the larger house, your house would more than likely sell if you were to list it at say $375,000 and accept an offer of no less than about $350,000. That's still more than twice what you paid for it about 11 years ago. Good luck

Lets hope I got the house #s correct

For starters, why don't you get your facts straight. Both houses are about the same size. If you're looking at the Realtors ad in Lake Chapala Review this month, the figure on my construction is wrong. It was taken from the Manifestation of Construction. I had the house measured by a certified engineer last week and the "actual" size is 434 m2 or 4,670 sq ft.

She is my Cousin by the way. I know the house very well as I supervised construction of 4 homes here with the builder and his Maestro. She just had hers measured on Saturday, so I don't know what her "actual" sq footage is, but I will find out. I can tell you this, that sq footage in Mexico means "nothing" because they measure everything under roof. It costs far less to build a garage or covered terrace than it does finished space in a house. The TRUE comparison of houses should be finished space in the house. Your living area, bedroom and bathroom isn't on the terrace.

And you didn't read the ad too well. I have 1/3 more land and a casita with an extra bedroom and bathroom. My house does not overlook farm land where "anyone" can build a 2 story home and ruin the view and devalue the house. My house has a "protected" view where there is another house and no one can build up.

Further, you know nothing about prices that were paid in Los Arroyos Sur 10 years ago, but I do. Only one very small house here went for 189 K. You are waaay off base with what I paid. Many houses here went for 300 + K. Do you think view land is cheap?

And you know nothing of the competition in the 400 K to 500 K range. I am 20 K to 70 K less than my competition. I am in a better Community than "all" of my competition. My house is probably "the best" maintained house in Ajijic. My competition either doesn't have a garage or pool or both and they're priced higher and the homes are older.

I don't know what your problem is, but If you want to persist in trying to destroy the value of my property without facts, I will have to consult an attorney. I don't get why you're doing this. Maybe YOU NEED A TIME OUT!

CanuckBob - You must know more than me. Who told you when the closing isn't even complete yet.

I don't know if you know that she purchased a house in FL before selling this, so she got nervous. Her sale price is no indication of what the houses are worth when a stress factor is involved.

Let me remind you that Patty & Phil McDonalds, # 17, sold their house for 380 K which I think is a give away. She had "No pool" and farm land in front, with not a very good view. She had a 2 bedroom 2 bath house. The guy didn't have a home inspection and had to redo the living room boveda ceiling. And the paint job sucks and will need to be redone soon.

If I take the # 17 house without a pool, add 1/3 or more of land, add a pool and casita which makes 3 BR and 3 BA, my house is fairly priced at 425 K. Figuring 10 K for pool and 30 K for casita.

John.........fact: The value of your house will be determined by the price paid, not by what you think it's worth........so why not just relax and see what happens instead of jumping up and down and protesting when anyone suggests that your asking price isn't right?

johninajijic wrote:CanuckBob - You must know more than me. Who told you when the closing isn't even complete yet.

I don't know if you know that she purchased a house in FL before selling this, so she got nervous. Her sale price is no indication of what the houses are worth when a stress factor is involved.

Let me remind you that Patty & Phil McDonalds, # 17, sold their house for 380 K which I think is a give away. She had "No pool" and farm land in front, with not a very good view. She had a 2 bedroom 2 bath house. The guy didn't have a home inspection and had to redo the living room boveda ceiling. And the paint job sucks and will need to be redone soon.

If I take the # 17 house without a pool, add 1/3 or more of land, add a pool and casita which makes 3 BR and 3 BA, my house is fairly priced at 425 K. Figuring 10 K for pool and 30 K for casita.

I thought Joe had told us that she dropped her asking price from 389,000 to 359,000 about 3-4 weeks ago. I have no idea what she finally settled on but thought you may know. Just curious.

CanuckBob wrote:

johninajijic wrote:CanuckBob - You must know more than me. Who told you when the closing isn't even complete yet.

I don't know if you know that she purchased a house in FL before selling this, so she got nervous. Her sale price is no indication of what the houses are worth when a stress factor is involved.

Let me remind you that Patty & Phil McDonalds, # 17, sold their house for 380 K which I think is a give away. She had "No pool" and farm land in front, with not a very good view. She had a 2 bedroom 2 bath house. The guy didn't have a home inspection and had to redo the living room boveda ceiling. And the paint job sucks and will need to be redone soon.

If I take the # 17 house without a pool, add 1/3 or more of land, add a pool and casita which makes 3 BR and 3 BA, my house is fairly priced at 425 K. Figuring 10 K for pool and 30 K for casita.

I thought Joe had told us that she dropped her asking price from 389,000 to 359,000 about 3-4 weeks ago. I have no idea what she finally settled on but thought you may know. Just curious.

No she dropped it from 395 K to 389 K and now she wishes she didn't. I'll find out actual selling price after it closes. I really don't know what it sold for.

John, you supervised the construction of 4 homes and you don't even know how to measure metros cuadrados de constucción??? AMAZING!!!

Was this for lucrative remuneration or pro bono work???

slainte39 wrote:John, you supervised the construction of 4 homes and you don't even know how to measure metros cuadrados de constucción??? AMAZING!!!

Was this for lucrative remuneration or pro bono work???

I like getting involved and learning new things. I have learned a load of stuff about construction from their workers and the builders Maestro and my own contractors in the past 10 years. Kinda fun! I mean correct construction teqniques, unlike some of the hacks around.

John:
I'm sorry you think I'm trying to destroy the value of your house. I have some real estate experience, not as much as many and based upon the figures presented to me, which very perhaps wrong, I was suggesting a price that I thought would get you an offer.

I started construction on my second house in 2001. And moved in a little later. I decided it wasn't for me and tried to sell in 2008 for somewhat less than the new construction cost. Almost two years later I got about 3/4 of that price

Had I been more realistic in the beginning I could have perhaps received more. Rather my house became old news and I lost even more. I think you did the same thing, and I don't want you to make the same mistake I made.

A starting price that is closer to the true market value, will give you a much better chance of getting it. What did you start at $595,000, I can't remember? remember what you paid for it.

I started correcting you when I thought you were greatly exaggerating the neighborhood you live in. Oh, it's a nice neighborhood

Pete - There is only one house here that could bring that kind of asking price because it's so large, but not in todays market.

Without knowing this market I started at 529. My house has not been on any where as near as long as "most" of the houses in Ajijic.

When my Realtor gives me accurate info on sold houses this year, I will publish it here.

I know for a fact that July was the best month. I also know a Realtor who sold 6 high end houses this year. but only sold one last year. Go figure, who knows.

Part of me wants to wish you luck, John. Another part says, if you don't sell, you be around longer, which I would like.