Even Older, Old Farts

Average life expectancy is set to increase in many countries by 2030 -- and will exceed 90 years in South Korea, according to new research.

The study, led by scientists from Imperial College London in collaboration with the World Health Organization, analysed long-term data on mortality and longevity trends to predict how life expectancy will change in 35 industrialised countries by 2030.

Nations in the study included both high-income countries, such as the USA, Canada, UK, Germany, Australia, and emerging economies such as Poland, Mexico and the Czech Republic.

The study, published in The Lancet and funded by the UK Medical Research Council, revealed all nations in the study can expect to see an increase in life expectancy by 2030.

The results also found that South Koreans may have the highest life expectancy in the world in 2030.

The team calculated life expectancy at birth, and predicted a baby girl born in South Korea in 2030 will expect to live 90.8 years. Life expectancy at birth for South Korean men will be 84.1 years.

The researchers also calculated how long a 65-year-old person may expect to live in 2030. The results revealed that the average 65-year-old woman in South Korea in 2030 may live an additional 27.5 years.

Scientists once thought an average life expectancy of over 90 was impossible, explained Professor Majid Ezzati, lead researcher from the School of Public Health at Imperial: "We repeatedly hear that improvements in human longevity are about to come to an end. Many people used to believe that 90 years is the upper limit for life expectancy, but this research suggests we will break the 90-year-barrier. I don't believe we're anywhere near the upper limit of life expectancy -if there even is one."

Professor Ezzati explained that South Korea's high life expectancy may be due to a number of factors including good nutrition in childhood, low blood pressure, low levels of smoking, good access to healthcare, and uptake of new medical knowledge and technologies.

French women and Swiss men were predicted to have the highest life expectancies at birth in Europe in 2030, with an average life expectancy of 88.6 years for French women and nearly 84 years for Swiss men.

The results also revealed that the USA is likely to have the lowest life expectancy at birth in 2030 among high-income countries. The nation's average life expectancy at birth of men and women in 2030 (79.5 years and 83.3 years), will be similar to that of middle-income countries like Croatia and Mexico. The research team say this may be due to a number of factors including a lack of universal healthcare, as well as the highest child and maternal mortality rate, homicide rate and obesity among high-income countries.

The UK's average life expectancy at birth for women will be 85.3 years in 2030. This places them at 21st in the table of 35 countries. The average life expectancy of a UK man meanwhile will be 82.5 years in 2030. This places them at 14th in the table of 35 countries.

The team also predicted a 65-year-old UK man in 2030 could expect to live an additional 20.9 years (12th in the table of countries), while a 65-year-old woman in the UK could expect to live an additional 22.7 years, up (22nd in the table of countries).

The research also suggested the gap in life expectancy between women and men is closing.

Professor Ezzati explained: "Men traditionally had unhealthier lifestyles, and so shorter life expectancies. They smoked and drank more, and had more road traffic accidents and homicides. However as lifestyles become more similar between men and women, so does their longevity."

Along with the US, other countries who may see only small increases in life expectancy by 2030 included Japan, Sweden and Greece, while Macedonia and Serbia were projected to have the lowest life expectancies at birth for women and men respectively in 2030.

Life expectancy is calculated by assessing the age at which people die across the whole population. For instance if a country has high childhood mortality rate, this will make average national life expectancy much lower, as would a country in which many young people die in injuries and violence.

Professor Colin Mathers, co-author from the World Health Organization explained: "The increase in average life expectancy in high income countries is due to the over-65s living longer than ever before. In middle-income countries, the number of premature deaths -- i.e. people dying in their forties and fifties, will also decline by 2030."

The team developed a new method to predict longevity, similar to the methods used for weather forecasting, which takes into account numerous different models for forecasting mortality and life expectancy. All the predictions in the study come with some uncertainty range. For instance, there is a 90 per cent probability that life expectancy for South Korean women in 2030 will be higher than 86.7 years, and a 57 per cent probability that it will be higher than 90 years.

The researchers chose the 35 industrialised countries in the study as they all had reliable data on deaths since at least 1985. The team then used this data, together with their new methodology to predict life expectancy to 2030.

Professor Ezzati added that these results suggest we need to be thinking carefully about the needs of an ageing population: "The fact that we will continue to live longer means we need to think about strengthening the health and social care systems to support an ageing population with multiple health needs. This is the opposite of what is being done in the era of austerity. We also need to think about whether current pension systems will support us, or if we need to consider working into later life."

Other findings from the research include:

• The five countries with the highest life expectancy at birth for men in 2030 were: South Korea (84.1), Australia (84.0), Switzerland (84.0), Canada (83.9), Netherlands (83.7)

• The five countries with the highest life expectancy at birth for women in 2030 were: South Korea (90.8), France (88.6), Japan (88.4), Spain (88.1), Switzerland (87.7)

• The five countries with the highest life expectancy for 65-year-old men in 2030 were: Canada (22.6 additional life years), New Zealand (22.5), Australia (22.2), South Korea (22.0), Ireland (21.7)

• The five countries with the highest life expectancy for 65-year-old women in 2030 were: South Korea (27.5 additional life years), France (26.1), Japan (25.9), Spain (24.8), Switzerland (24.6)

• The five countries in Europe with the highest life expectancy at birth for men in 2030 were: Switzerland (84.0), Netherlands (83.7), Spain (83.5), Ireland (83.2) and Norway (83.2)

• The five countries in Europe with the highest life expectancy at birth for women in 2030 were: France (88.6), Spain (88.1), and Switzerland (87.7), Portugal (87.5) and Slovenia (87.4).

• The UK's average life expectancy at birth for women will increase from 82.3 years in 2010 to 85.3 years in 2030. This places them 21st in the table of 35 countries (compared to 22nd in 2010).

• The average life expectancy of a UK man at birth will increase from 78.3 years in 2010 to 82.5 years in 2030. This places them 14th in the table of 35 countries (compared to 11th in 2010).


Story Source:

Materials provided by Imperial College London. Original written by Kate Wighton. Note: Content may be edited for style and length.

Except for the terminally unimaginative who think that living forever is a nice idea, in no way can this be viewed as anything but bad.

Depressing stats. Well, if I were more imaginative, I would no doubt figure out how to enjoy life and make a contribution beyond 72, my current age. As it is, I can no longer figure out how to contribute to the bottom line or much of anything else. This may be laziness or it may be lack of drive, or it may be old age combined with a declining brain, and the necessity of concentrating on necessary tasks, of which there are a fair lot here; who knows? This in not NYC, where one can order groceries and food online and have them delivered. Am I still up to the tasks of the employee benefits consulting job I once held? NO. Do I wish to rise to the occasion and do something useful? NO. I guess I am in the "betwixt and between" generation: what'll we do?

This has been of interest to me for some time. The world population is growing although the birthrate is declining. This is because fewer people are dying each year than before.

However, the population curve is now flattening (except Africa which is just decreasing) and eventually, the old farts will start dying off more and there will be fewer people to replace them.

Most of this is because of modern medicine. I go to breakfast with a bunch that are all 60+, many 70+ and if we were born 50 years ago, we would all be dead.

A few years ago, I fell and broke my pelvis in 3 places. The mortality rate for one year was 40% but that looks back 40 years. The actual mortality rate today is around 5% because of the drugs available to keep blood clots down.

We are not "living longer", medical science is just keeping us alive longer.

The big problem is pensions. They are running out.

It used to be that you worked 45 years, retired at 65 and died at 66. Today you work 45 years, retire at 65 and live for another 25 years sucking up lots of retirement checks and running up big medical bills for years.

It's very difficult to put enough money away in 45 years to live on for 35 more years and the birthrate is below replacement so you can't count on a bunch of new workers to make the payments either.

This is probably the ideal time to be an "old retired fart". Before 1930, retirement plans were unheard of and within another 10-15 years, most retirement plans will be busted or checks cut severely. Enjoy it while you can because things are going to change drastically in the near future.

Thanks mucho for the comments. Alas, sometimes I think it is only MOI who is worried about where things are going. Nevermind in re: traveling and whooping it up--I will not want to do so at 90, altho some do. I will be grateful if I can afford a daily caregiver if I make it to 90! Alas, we have a choice of (a) spending it now when we can enjoy a trip to wherever, and (b) saving it for out extreme old age, when, at least in Mexico, we might enjoy good caregivers. This old age thing is very scary! My parents died in heir late 70's. I had no idea that I might live much beyond that. It is a new world. Glad I do not work for US Social Security OR for any of the actuarial consulting firms for which I used to work--those extremely bright people must, alas, be tearing their hair out now.

jrm30655 wrote:  I go to breakfast with a bunch that are all 60+, many 70+ and if we were born 50 years ago, we would all be dead.  

Gee, wouldn't that make you 10 to 20+ years younger?

"Most of this is because of modern medicine. I go to breakfast with a bunch that are all 60+, many 70+ and if we were born 50 years ago, we would all be dead. "
Let's not forget public health. Most of the greatest strides in longevity is due to public health. Many third world countries are sorely lacking in this area

We are living longer because of stents, pacemakers, defibrillators, antibiotics, sophisticated ortho technology, blood thinners, and more food. Me thinks. . .

Vaccinations, clean environment, proper waste disposal, prenatal care, proper food nutrition, etc. have greater cumulative effects on longevity than palliative procedures. Stents and pacemakers wouldn't be used as much if we hadn't lived long enough to need them.

To paraphrase..."Science, Uh! good god y'all, what is it good for! Absolutely everything! Say it again!"

Clete wrote:

jrm30655 wrote:   I go to breakfast with a bunch that are all 60+, many 70+ and if we were born 50 years ago, we would all be dead.  

Gee, wouldn't that make you 10 to 20+ years younger?

I didn't phrase that very well, did I? I think I meant "If we had been born 50 years sooner"

At breakfast, we have talked about starting a "free crematorium". We get to keep the metal parts for salvage as payment. I have about $30,000 in stents, pins, plates and screws in me.

Medical science can patch us up and send us back into the world only so long because at some point, we all just "wear out" and the cells no longer reproduce right.

A lot of my family is medical and nothing gives me greater pleasure than needling doctors. I especially get pleasure pointing out that doctors, as a profession, don't have that great a longevity. I love to point that out and deduce that if they really knew anything, they would live longer. It drives them nuts.

Heredity

My Mom was  87 the other day. Lives by herself and takes care of a 3000 sq ft house.  She mows the grass and such stuff. She does have help now to take care of the yard now.  Her Mother lived to be 91 while abusing her lungs by smoking.  My point is I have to plan to be as old as my Mother or longer. My Father and sister have been fighting cancer for 30 plus years with my father dying in his 50s years and years ago. Meanwhile  to me heredity has much to do with my situation as Gringal said. The difference between my sister having cancer three times before she was 50 and myself who is healthy as a horse compared to her.  All this has been genetically tested.  I am a very lucky man and my sister is a very unlucky woman genetically .  For the curious she seems to be beating the big C  in her latest cancer fight while I enjoy my healthy life here at lakeside.  Sometimes I feel bad but I had a had a very sad childhood medical wise and we each take our turn at life.  Gringal is right heredity is a big deal at least for my family.  I won. My sister lost and will probably fight the rest of her life while I enjoy the weather. Its the truth.

Z

My grandmother died in childbirth (preventable now) but her twin sister lived to be 110 and took care of here own needs and house until that time. On the other side of the family, not quite so good, but good enough. So....I need to plan ahead. You never know.

There was a study out a few years ago that said that cancer was more or less a luck issue.

I have decided that everything kills you eventually.

"There was a study out a few years ago that said that cancer was more or less a luck issue."
If it is luck why are some families stricken with cancer more often than others? Why are some geographical areas showing more incidences of certain cancers than others? Why are some professions more likely to suffer certain cancers than others?
It would have been more honest to confess ignorance than to make a statement like that. Not knowing that reasons exist is not a reason to deny that they exist.

Cancer is environment and genetics IMO. I guess it would be "unlucky" to live on a hazardous waste dump and/or have bad genes.......

Or smoke. Or eat a crappy diet. Or play with or work with toxic cancer causing chemicals etc. And there is a genetic component, esp in combination with the high risk factors. For example: "I got lung cancer. I got it from my father, he died from it." "Do you smoke?" "Yes." "Did your father smoke?" "Yes." Duh.