The Peso Takes a Dive (beware)

Around 10:00 on election night, when it became apparent Trump would win, the peso took a big-ass dive. Although this will make my life here a little easier, it really does not bode well for Mexico.

We survived Bush and we will survive Trump. Time to go get some Pesos.

Z

Smartalex wrote:Around 10:00 on election night, when it became apparent Trump would win, the peso took a big-ass dive. Although this will make my life here a little easier, it really does not bode well for Mexico.

Life easier for who. American's?? It certainly won't make it easier for the Mexicans, American's or anyone else down here when double digit inflation sets in.

And BTW.....yesterday I saw a truckload of Mexicans with some anti Trump banners in the WalMart parking lot getting verbally aggressive. That was before Trump won so you may want to keep your "well life is easier" stuff to yourself for a while......

Was at the Chapala malecon this morning, thought there was going to fisticuff, a guy very passionate about losing, was getting in peoples face, he is a gringo.
So its not only the locals, but VERY well meaning people that feel strongly, one way or the other

I was approached by two Mexicans, who I know, on my walk this morning. They asked me if I was happy with my new president. I reminded them that I was Canadian. They laughed, apologized and said "it looks likes we are in the same boat then". I pointed out to them that the majority of the "gringos" here probably aren't happy with the results and there may be many more coming down in the near future. It could bode well for the local economy.

That was a good thing to say, I will say the same. I, however, am avoiding my morning out and about. I'd probably burst into tears, maybe I'll feel stronger this afternoon.

For many years I've claimed to be Canadian when anyone asked who seemed anti American.

Wanting to know, I gave our breakfast cook the Trump/Presidente news this morning. She's the one we half jokingly call the happiest person on earth. Her initial reaction was a look of complete shock, then it turned to sadness as she wiped a tear of two from her eyes and walked to the kitchen.

I've never claimed to be anything other than what I am. We've had good elections and nutty ones like this. Let's just hope the outcome won't be as scary as projected but a lot of people need to get a grip.

oncesubtle wrote:Wanting to know, I gave our breakfast cook the Trump/Presidente news this morning. She's the one we half jokingly call the happiest person on earth. Her initial reaction was a look of complete shock, then it turned to sadness as she wiped a tear of two from her eyes and walked to the kitchen.

Same here Bob, though me and my Mexican spouse are here in the states for now, it might not be long before we are living in Mexico against our will.

Or....it may only be a short time until the Mexican Government ASKS you to leave!!
Who knows what the future will hold, we can only pray that Trump will simmer it down before he creates a worldwide problem. Sure glad we're Canadians - maybe a few new Maple Leaf T-shirts are in order!

If Trump starts mass deportations of millions of Mexicans back to Mexico, there could be massive unemployment across Mexico, which could lead to higher crimes like robbery and theft.  And maybe some resentment to expats.  

While I have an RP, one wonders if the Mexcian Government will continue to be so lenient to US expats for RP's and allowing us to get into IMSS and SG .  Yes, I know it's in the Mexican Constitution, but the Mexican legislature could start the process to undo these civilities if they see millions of Mexicans rounded up and returned to MX against their wishes.  then there's NAFTA.  Undoing that and/or instituting high tariffs will result in a slower Mexican economy, more unemployment and high inflation.  

Don't even get me started on Trump's Wall.  

I'm here, I'm old and  not going anywhere (too sick to even travel these days).  But I wouldn't count on an increase in expats until they see how Trump treats Mexico and then to see how Mexico reacts to treatment they view as abusive.  

It may be ugly for awhile.  Hope I'm wrong.

Sideways wrote:If Trump starts mass deportations of millions of Mexicans back to Mexico, there could be massive unemployment across Mexico, which could lead to higher crimes like robbery and theft.  And maybe some resentment to expats.  

While I have an RP, one wonders if the Mexcian Government will continue to be so lenient to US expats for RP's and allowing us to get into IMSS and SG .  Yes, I know it's in the Mexican Constitution, but the Mexican legislature could start the process to undo these civilities if they see millions of Mexicans rounded up and returned to MX against their wishes.  then there's NAFTA.  Undoing that and/or instituting high tariffs will result in a slower Mexican economy, more unemployment and high inflation.  

Don't even get me started on Trump's Wall.  

I'm here, I'm old and  not going anywhere (too sick to even travel these days).  But I wouldn't count on an increase in expats until they see how Trump treats Mexico and then to see how Mexico reacts to treatment they view as abusive.  

It may be ugly for awhile.  Hope I'm wrong.

Good points. We might not be as welcome as we once were, as U.S. expats. However, I can't see any advantage to the Mexican government getting rid of us since we do bring our yankee dollar pensions and spend them here.

Sideways wrote:If Trump starts mass deportations of millions of Mexicans back to Mexico, there could be massive unemployment across Mexico, which could lead to higher crimes like robbery and theft.  And maybe some resentment to expats.

Not "some" resentment, a lot of resentment. There is already a changed feeling between our Mexican hosts and us. Get out and walk around today. You will get the same feeling. Of course this will dissipate over time unless the shit really does hit the fan.......then all bets are off. It's not likely that Mexico will deport or refuse entry to any Americans though. They realize that most living or coming here are unhappy too. They may no longer allow duel citizenship with the US though.....

CanuckBob wrote:

Sideways wrote:If Trump starts mass deportations of millions of Mexicans back to Mexico, there could be massive unemployment across Mexico, which could lead to higher crimes like robbery and theft.  And maybe some resentment to expats.

Not "some" resentment, a lot of resentment. There is already a changed feeling between our Mexican hosts and us. Get out and walk around today. You will get the same feeling. Of course this will dissipate over time unless the shit really does hit the fan.......then all bets are off. It's not likely that Mexico will deport or refuse entry to any Americans though. They realize that most living or coming here are unhappy too. They may no longer allow duel citizenship with the US though.....

Some errors deserve to be celebrated, Bob: In this case: "duel" citizenship. Right on target!!

Enjoy!!

Not worried about deportation, but they may make it harder to get an RP. Here's article from Wash Post Newspaper.

With Trump victory, Mexico's worst fears are realized
By Joshua Partlow November 9 at 10:27 AM

MEXICO CITY — The election of Donald Trump threw Mexican financial markets into turmoil on Wednesday, unleashing a wave of national anxiety and threatening to put dramatic new strains on the relationship between the two neighbors and trading partners.

As the results of the presidential election came in, Mexicans watched with growing horror as Trump — a man who has vowed to
wall off Mexico, deport millions, and re­write the trade deal that has undergirded Mexico’s economic progress over the past
two decades — captured state after state. The peso, which had been strengthening on the basis of Democratic candidate Hillary
Clinton’s lead in the polls, plummeted. The headline of an editorial Wednesday in one of Mexico’s leading newspapers, El Universal, simply read: “A dark future.”

“The American people chose yesterday the path of racism, hate and intolerance,” it began.

Mexico’s top economic officials, Finance Minister Jose Antonio Meade and Central Bank governor Agustin Carstens, tried to calm fears here about the immediate impact on Mexico’s economy. In a morning news conference at the presidential palace here, Meade said that the U.S. election increased uncertainty in world financial markets and heightened the volatility of
Mexico’s currency. But he added that Mexico was in a strong economic position .

“It’s important to remember that the functioning of markets has remained orderly,” Meade said. “The result of the election doesn’t imply an immediate impact in the norms that regulate the commerce of goods and services, financial flows, or the capacity of people to travel between both countries.”

Mexico’s Central Bank has regularly raised interest rates over the past year in an attempt to contain the losses in the peso and tamp down inflation. The peso, which was trading around 18 to the dollar on Tuesday, has dropped in value to more than 20 to the dollar. Carstens added that the Central Bank would take steps necessary to keep inflation, which is around 3 percent, “low
and stable.”

President Enrique Peña Nieto on Wednesday tweeted his congratulations to the United States on its electoral process and he expressed to Trump “the will to work together in favor of bilateral relations.”

As Trump’s lead grew on Tuesday night, Mexico’s foreign minister, Claudia Ruiz Massieu, rushed to the presidential palace, Los Pinos, to discuss the results with Peña Nieto.

Trump’s campaign has caused upheaval in Mexico since he launched his bid for the presidency in a speech calling Mexican immigrants rapists and criminals . Fears of a Trump victory and possible damage to the Mexican economy prompted Peña Nieto to invite Trump to Mexico City in September to improve ties. That meeting caused a huge backlash, as Mexicans
protested their leader’s welcoming treatment of the Republican candidate.The finance minister, who pushed for the meeting, lost his job.

Beyond the short­term market volatility, Mexicans fear lasting damage to their economy, with some economists predicting a recession if Trump pursues the plans he has outlined. Trump has regularly disparaged the North American Free Trade Agreement, the accord that took effect in 1994 that has helped Mexican exports grow by orders of magnitude while also
attracting far more foreign investment in the country. More than $1 billion worth of exports and imports cross the 2000­ mile U.S.­Mexico border every day. In many cases, such as in the auto industry, parts come from both sides of the border to make a finished product.

Mexicans are also worried about Trump’s threats to deport millions of illegal immigratns from the United States.
“This is a very difficult situation, we have to prepare ourselves,” said Jeffrey Weldon, a political scientist at the Autonomous
Technological Institute of Mexico. “You have to think about all the Mexicans that will have to return from the United States,
and how they will integrate into society. You will have problems with the dollar, and we will have little time to solve our trade
problems.”

Raul Benitez Manaut, a professor at Mexico’s National Autonomous University, noted that the Trump victory followed the British vote to leave the European Union and the Colombian vote to scrap a peace plan with left­wing guerrillas. “The traditional parties don’t respond to the needs of the people,” he said.
“The aggressive and nationalist discourse has expanded in a very important way in the world,” he said.

The election also reshuffled the deck on Mexico’s domestic politics. The country’s parties are just getting into campaign mode with a presidential election two years out. Many observers speculated that a nationalist backlash could emerge here to counter the anti­ Mexican and anti ­immigrant rhetoric that Trump has used.

The leading populist candidate here, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, who has trailed in early polls among Mexican voters behind the right ­leaning National Action Party candidate Margarita Zavala, could see a resurgence, some analysts predicted.

“Mexico will have a very big problem having good relations with him,” Benitez added. “Mexicans are very nationalistic, and they feel aggrieved by Trump.

CanuckBob wrote:

Smartalex wrote:Around 10:00 on election night, when it became apparent Trump would win, the peso took a big-ass dive. Although this will make my life here a little easier, it really does not bode well for Mexico.

Life easier for who. American's?? It certainly won't make it easier for the Mexicans, American's or anyone else down here when double digit inflation sets in.

Why do you think Trump's election will lead to double-digit inflation in Mexico? If he actually accomplishes the things he has threatened to do, the Mexican economy could fall into recession, which could well lead to deflation rather than inflation. Don't get me wrong, I'm hoping the new U.S. administration will come to its collective senses and back down from these ridiculous proposals. For instance, imposing a 35 percent import duty on new cars built in Mexico would most likely lead to a shutdown of all those new assembly plants, putting all those Mexican workers out of their jobs and penalizing the auto manufacturers the hundreds of millions of dollars they have invested in those plants. The ramifications of this would be pretty widespread. I believe German, Japanese and Korean auto manufacturers also have new assembly plants in Mexico.

Incidentally, the peso took a similar dive against the Canadian dollar at the same time last night.

And BTW...did you add the "(Beware)" to the title of this thread?

Just a heads up to North American people

This morning I was in front of Ricks Corned Beef at the Ajijic Plaza with a friend talking. The owner of the candy store (next door) come in for work and as he walked by he said to both of us (closely quoting) "Fuck you Americans, fuck you, you all need to get the fuck out of Mexico! You vote in Trump so fuck you! You need to go back to your own country!" He was visibly and literally shaking as he walked by. Then he got on the phone and started making calls (about three) and yelling (in Spanish) about the Americans. The man I was with is against Trump no questions and as I said I forwent voting this year.
So it don't matter how you voted or not.

So to the older generation I might suggest that you travel in twos and avoid all conflicts.

Smartalex wrote:

CanuckBob wrote:

Smartalex wrote:Around 10:00 on election night, when it became apparent Trump would win, the peso took a big-ass dive. Although this will make my life here a little easier, it really does not bode well for Mexico.

Life easier for who. American's?? It certainly won't make it easier for the Mexicans, American's or anyone else down here when double digit inflation sets in.

Incidentally, the peso took a similar dive against the Canadian dollar at the same time last night.

And BTW...did you add the "(Beware)" to the title of this thread?

Yes, and I won't be talking about how it makes my life easier. There has already been inflation because of the USD/Peso situation. There could be a lot more soon.

Smartalex wrote:

CanuckBob wrote:

Smartalex wrote:Around 10:00 on election night, when it became apparent Trump would win, the peso took a big-ass dive. Although this will make my life here a little easier, it really does not bode well for Mexico.

Life easier for who. American's?? It certainly won't make it easier for the Mexicans, American's or anyone else down here when double digit inflation sets in.

And BTW...did you add the "(Beware)" to the title of this thread?

Yes, I added the beware since the thread has had some warnings added to it.

Me&BearDog wrote:Just a heads up to North American people

This morning I was in front of Ricks Corned Beef at the Ajijic Plaza with a friend talking. The owner of the candy store (next door) come in for work and as he walked by he said to both of us (closely quoting) "Fuck you Americans, fuck you, you all need to get the fuck out of Mexico! You vote in Trump so fuck you! You need to go back to your own country!" He was visibly and literally shaking as he walked by. Then he got on the phone and started making calls (about three) and yelling (in Spanish) about the Americans.  The man I was with is against Trump no questions and as I said I forwent voting this year.
So it don't matter how you voted or not.

So to the older generation I might suggest that you travel in twos and avoid all conflicts.

Rick was telling me the same thing when I saw him this morning.

Stock market up 209 as I post this. So far the sky is not falling. Let me repeat "The Sky Is Not Falling"
Yet!   And and a  from the Veterans at the VFW.

Bob I was told by Veve that this man two days ago had an altercation with an American in his store that spilled out to the street. She overheard that American loaned the Candy store owner money and he now refuses to pay it back. I think I would go on to say it would be good all in all to avoid this man for a while.