Tropical Storm Ernesto

Granted these are projections or models but it currently looks like Central Mexico may be in for some decent rains:

http://ibiseye.com/

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?5-daynl?large#contents

I'm hoping so! Been watching it for a couple of days now. I think it kind of depends how strong the hurricane is when it hits Mexico...needs a fair bit of power to get over the Yucatan into the Gulf...time will tell.

Actually, at the present time it appears that Ernesto is headed for the Southern Yucatan Peninsula and Belize with the maiin force of the storm headed inland toward Southern Veracruz state and on into Chiapas. This is a very monutainous region and the rough terran should diminish the force of the hurricane if one develops. However, the rugged topography can also stall major rainstorms over these hills and , thereby, foster devastating mudslides endangering poor, hilside communities and people´s lives in parts of Veracruz, Chiapas and, perhaps, Oaxaca to say nothing of parts of Central America in addition to Belize.

Hurricanes are a poor way to supplement normal rainfall for many reasons. I am pleased our home in the Chiapas Highlands is on the top of a hill as heavy rains accompanying fierce tropical storms can cause severe flooding in the High Jovel Valley where we live. However, whole communities nestled among steep mountainsides can be swallowed up by mudslides during these inundations so we can only hope for the best. One must actually visit the back country in the Chiapas Highlands (and the Oaxaca Highlands as well) to see and believe the precarious perches of some communities along narrow ridges that look as if the earth could give away at any time and plunge whole communities hundreds of meters to total destruction.

We really, really need more rain.

We need more rain so let everyone else eat dirt? Thanks hound dog for pointing out that "hurricanes are a poor way to supplement normal rainfall."

In checking the current projections, it appears that the rains may hit sometime on Saturday:

[img][/img]

While the models created by international weather organizations appear to indicate that Ernesto will stay on a western track, INFORMADOR has an article which appears to indicate a wider range of areas affected:
http://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?act=url&hl=en&ie=UTF8&prev=_t&rurl=translate.google.com&sl=es&tl=en&twu=1&u=http://www.informador.com.mx/primera/2012/396274/6/asoma-en-jalisco-fin-de-semana-pasado-por-agua.htm&usg=ALkJrhjQJlj8uHWuiedEMcpt1q2fX9SZZw

CheenaGringo wrote:In checking the current projections, it appears that the rains may hit sometime on Saturday:

[img][/img]

Remember the end of the track (left side) is probably only 5 to 10% accurate.

Z

Nope, looks like another miss, driven south by the same pressure systems that are beginning to make our rainy season look pretty iffy.

Mainecoons wrote:Nope, looks like another miss, driven south by the same pressure systems that are beginning to make our rainy season look pretty iffy.

Agreed

Z

Something is blowing up outside right now!

Sparks, thanks for the pic. Can you post the link to this site?

Weather Underground Manzanillo
http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/76653.html?bannertypeclick=htmlSticker

Or NOAA Eastern Pacific
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml?epac